Political Business Cycles in Open Economies in 28 Developing Countries From Latin America, Asia, and Africa, 1976-2002

Political Business Cycles in Open Economies in 28 Developing Countries From Latin America, Asia, and Africa, 1976-2002

This study looked at whether opportunistic and partisan business cycles influence fiscal policy in 28 developing countries when controlling for de facto exchange rate regimes and capital mobility. Several issues were investigated: 1) opportunistic business cycles, whether elections cause the governments budget balance (taxes minus spending) to experience fiscal expansion (lower taxes and higher spending) in order to stimulate the economy; 2) partisan business cycles, whether left-wing parties engage in more fiscal expansion; 3) whether growing capital mobility (the ability of financial capital to move across borders) will encourage or inhibit a government’s ability to engage in fiscal expansion with an impending election or left-wing party; and 4) whether the exchange rate regime (the rules for determining the exchange rate) is a mitigating factor.

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